Thunderbolts*, Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps did everything right, so what went wrong with this year’s comic book movie blockbusters at the box office?
Hollywood has spent the past half a decade in a post-COVID era, facing an exacerbation of a problem that was already well in motion. Fewer people, particularly younger generations, are buying cinema tickets. The once Golden Goose, known as the comic book movie, seemed like an unshakable money spinner. Even a C-tier comic like Guardians of the Galaxy, that most Joe Publicans had never heard of before the film adaptation, could make over three-quarters of a billion dollars.
In a post-Avengers: Endgame landscape, with furious oversaturation of product, it seemed like audiences were burned out. Was it simply quantity (never-ending, relentless, Homer Simpson eating donuts in hell) quantity? Maybe. Was it the generally massive dip in quality, with many of the films feeling half-heartedly churned out and feeling decidedly like an executive board meeting of barely considered ideas chucked at the screen? Very possibly, but more likely a combination of both factors alongside something more.
The less said about 2024’s low ebb of superhero movies the better, with audiences bored and studios unfazed with tossing awful movies into cinemas or even worse, just not releasing the films. However, with even the slew of tie-in shows slowing down, 2025 felt like a year where the genre could potentially restart after a good defrag, cache cleansing and other analogies. A clean slate with Thunderbolts*, Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
For Thunderbolts*, the task was a little tough. You had a ragtag group of relatively unknown characters in pop culture, headed by Florence Pugh, reprising her role from the mostly forgettable Black Widow. Still, it came with some audiences feeling like we’d not seen any proper MCU events in a long, long time (in relative terms).
Superman was a whole different beast, with one of the A-list, top-tier, grand pantheon characters with a long and rich history in comics, TV shows (let’s not mention Dean Cain’s transition from Superman to Ice-man), movies and more. The iconic blue suit, red cape and perfectly coiffed hair is an image that travels the world over, as well as Batman, arguably better. Yet box office expectations felt tempered from the beginning, with the internet descending into a bitter trade of barbs between hopeful new fans, jaded old Reeve fans and (worse) Snyder-bots. They’re nothing if not loyal to his vision and Henry Cavill’s portrayal.
Finally, we had the Fantastic Four, of high standing in pop culture and probably at the lower end of A-tier comic book characters as far as public recognition. In some regards that one had the added luxury of having only dreadful film adaptations to follow. As far as critical response and fan appreciation, the only way was up.
All three opened to very good reviews from both critics and fans. All as divisive as you would expect for something that tickles nerd culture like it does, and also with such staunch premeditated revulsion from some sections to a new Superman in particular. Still, the overwhelming majority watched them all and liked it, even if Supes definitely had a very vocal minority who’ll tell you it’s the worst thing ever.
In theory, these should have turned the fortunes around for their respective studios, for the sub-genre, but also for blockbuster cinema in general. Initially, they all opened strong with declarations of salvation to comic book movies. Thunderbolts* opened pretty big domestically and reasonably internationally. Exactly what was hoped and what tracking suggested. But here’s the difficulty with putting your faith in tracking: it rarely gives you an indication of the second week. So those initial celebrations were short-lived. The film grossed just over $382 million dollars worldwide, which, given its budget and in relation to comic book movies (and granted the whole landscape is markedly changed even since Black Widow came out), was terrible.
Superman had far bigger boots (and a cape) to fill, though. A much bigger legacy character and officially the DC Universe relaunch under head honcho, James Gunn (who also directed the film). Reviews, as I said, are very good. Fans out the door, who hadn’t already made their mind up before the first set picture, were also largely satisfied. Joy of joys, it opened big and it needed to because the film, all in, cost a fortune (as these things generally do). Everything was right…
So what went wrong? It’s the death knell these days, and it’s that killer drop off. Very rarely, especially at the big blockbuster level now, do films hold their levels. Now, Sinners was deemed a big success, in part thanks to its more moderate budget but largely because it had impressively low drop-offs in those opening weeks. Superman fell hard. Mere weeks later, Fantastic Four: First Steps came out, and Clark and co fell off the proverbial cliff.
Fantastic Four also opened fairly impressively, above rather downbeat early predictions, but again, the drop-offs in week two, three, beyond, were killer. It also seemed to suffer from a real turnaround in public opinion for Pedro Pascal, suddenly deemed to be in too much, to be too odd in media circuits, but worst off (apparently) for expressing left-leaning opinions. Even ones of inclusivity and kindness that mirror the general messages most comic books and characters have promoted for nearly a century. Go figure.
I won’t lie, at the absolute peak of comic book cinema, completely overtaking multiplexes and even indie cinemas, with such mind-numbing focus on multiverses, shared universes and a load of bollocks most adults probably don’t care about, I was bored by their constant presence. At the same time, those massive box office hauls of in and around (and sometimes way over) a billion bucks were keeping the lights on in theatres. In conjunction, there was a mini-rise in indie cinema and a small but welcome semi-resurgence in mid budget films. Somewhere down the line, the big screen needs to make money to perpetuate the possibility of continuation. So I wanted Superman to do better numbers than it struggling to pass $600 million, and still some way behind the ‘suggested (yeah, I know)’ break-even point.
It’s a complex beast, the mega-budget level of filmmaking. Sinners and Weapons might suggest people are open and willing to watch more mature and more original movies, and that smaller budgets make a good return more achievable. The industry undoubtedly needs a rethink of its model. Here’s the cynic in me, though and why many huge studios would rather spend $300 million making a movie than$ 100. That $300 mill gets sliced and diced, and honestly, barely a sixth of it probably ends up on screen by the time you may have paid stars, producers, directors and execs. Why hope on a crazy back-end percentage when you can just take the money and run right off the bat? Maybe. Perhaps. However, let’s assume that the model has a shelf life because investors can’t piss money away forever on films that tank.
Assuming that studios do care about turning a profit, then yes, budgets need to fall. The quick drop to streaming doesn’t really feel like it helps do anything but make people apathetic about a big screen trip (when they can wait weeks to watch it at home). The streaming models don’t lend themselves to making the kind of money a strong DVD rental and sales run might have 20 years back, either. If a Disney film drops to Disney+ in record time, how do you quantify its home gross? Purely extra subscriptions? With some of these streamers, how many more subscribers can you possibly get that justify massively overspending on films (and again, some extraordinarily ropey CGI in recent years suggests it’s not all ending up on screen)?
If the three movies this year proved anything, it’s that quality wasn’t the overriding factor. That’s further proved by the performances of Minecraft and Jurassic World: Rebirth at the box office, despite mediocre reviews. The viral factor is a definite thing, and something none of the spandex-heavy films seemed to carry. Dinos may just be more ‘in’ than superheroes, among the kids. I couldn’t pay my daughter to go and see Superman or Fantastic Four, but she was keen as mustard to watch Minecraft and Jurassic World: Rebirth (and she enjoyed both). Maybe the all-encompassing ages 5-50 fishing net isn’t the way to go? Perhaps the over-25s are shifting to more original and mature, character-driven films. Maybe the younger kids want Chicken Jockey? The generation that most loved the MCU grew and watched it come to a gargantuan head with Endgame, and the next phase felt dull by comparison. Now, as many find they’re taking their own kids to watch Jack Black heroically try and carry Minecraft, they might have grown out of comic book films.
If the genre wasn’t at a crossroads before this year, it definitely is now, and blockbuster cinema continues to baffle. Lilo & Stitch had its live action remake that had very little buzz prior, arrived to okay reviews, but is the highest-grossing Western-made movie of the year and the only one to cross the billion threshold (think back to those years where you’d see several films cross that). The question now is, just where can the MCU and DCU go? Do they readjust their model and expectations completely to encompass big screen and home altogether? Again, it’s a lot to ask something like Thunderbolts to potentially claw back $2-300 million at home to hit the black. My overriding preference is seeing more like the Sinners approach, even relating to comic book movies. Hell, give me a rough and ready, A24 styled, practical-driven comic book movie shot for $50 million.
It will be interesting to see how James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash performs later this year, too, in a landscape that feels markedly different from when the second film came out. Can it get close to the same kind of numbers? One thing is for sure: for the sake of blockbuster movies, it probably needs to remind us that big event movies can still dominate for months rather than just weeks, or sometimes just days.
Do you think huge budget comic book movies have had their day? Is there any possibility of Avengers: Doomsday failing to meet box office expectations? Let us know on our social channels @FlickeringMyth…
Tom Jolliffe
