As we approach the dawn of a new era for DC Films, all eyes are on the opening weekend for Superman. Can James Gunn pull off the needed revitalization for DC heroes on the big screen, as well as launch a big comic book movie in a year that hasn’t been too kind to the genre?
Box office tracking for what Gunn’s Superman can likely do has finally come on board, and we have some engaging projections. The bold headlines have put the film on track for a potential $135 million, which would be impressive for a year that has struggled to have more than two movies open with more than $100 million. Some are suggesting a much lower range of $90 million to $120 million, which, to be fair, could still be a delight.
The $135 million stat is from the leading tracking service, the National Research Group, according to sources with access to the data. Reportedly, the lower numbers have come from insiders at Warner Bros. and DC Films, as the studio aims to lower expectations, given the uneven nature of the genre at present.
On the other hand, there’s a more optimistic estimate of as much as $175 million for a domestic opening. That would easily surpass Zack Snyder’s 2013 film Man of Steel at $116 million and 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice‘s $166 million domestic debut. That larger projection would see this land in the range of Christopher Nolan’s final two Batman movies, The Dark Knight Rises ($160.9 million) and The Dark Knight ($158.4 million). According to THR, the number is sourced from “box office experts who monitor social metrics.”
SEE ALSO: The Villainy of Lex Luthor in James Gunn’s Superman
Looking at the lower end of projections, many feel that anything less than $100 million would be a significant red flag. Though it would also be in line with other superhero flicks this year, as Thunderbolts* launched with only $74 million in its domestic opening weekend and Captain America: Brave New World debuted to $88.5 million, and a total of $100 million over the four-day.
$90 million is not a great launching point for Superman, even if it would still be slightly better than most of its peers. We look at 2024’s Deadpool & Wolverine, and we see that a massive blockbuster opening is still possible, as its domestic launch was over $211 million. Sure, this Superman is coming off a gaggle of bad DC movies and has to relaunch the DCU, but looking at that projected $90 million being more than doubled by a multiverse Deadpool sequel is still shocking.
If we are being honest, given the marketing and the passion fans have to see a comic book blockbuster do well, Superman will surely open over $100 million, but it’s still strange that we can’t say that for sure.
What do you think Superman will open with? Can James Gunn achieve a $175 million launch, or is a range of $120 million safer? Share your thoughts by reaching out to our social channels @FlickeringMyth…
“Superman tells the story of Superman’s journey to reconcile his Kryptonian heritage with his human upbringing as Clark Kent of Smallville, Kansas. He is the embodiment of truth, justice, and the American way, guided by human kindness in a world that sees kindness as old-fashioned.”
Written and directed by James Gunn, Superman stars David Corenswet as Ka’lel/Clark Kent, Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane, Skyler Gisondo as Jimmy Olsen, Nicholas Hoult as Lex Luthor, Isabela Merced as Hawkgirl, Edi Gathegi as Mister Terrific, Nathan Fillion as Green Lantern/Guy Gardner, Anthony Carrigan as Metamorpho, Sara Sampaio as Eve Teschmacher, María Gabriela De Faría as The Engineer, Sean Gunn as Maxwell Lord, Frank Grillo as Rick Flag Sr., Milly Alcock as Supergirl, Wendell Pierce as Perry White, Beck Bennett as Steve Lombard, Mikaela Hoover as Cat Grant, Christopher McDonald as Ron Troupe, Terence Rosemore as Otis, and Pruitt Taylor Vince and Neva Howell as Jonathan and Martha Kent.
