Early tracking suggests Alita could be the first major tank of 2019, but let’s wait and see. For a project that 15 years ago, many Cameron fans would have taken over Avatar as his next, it has come out with very little fanfare and expectation (not helped by a string of anime adaptation flops). How much of Cameron’s stamp is still there in the Robert Rodriguez directed film, will be up for debate, but it’s still a worrying sign that Cameron could be in the midst of a pre-occupation with flogging dead horses. In fact by the end of the year it’s quite likely that he may have his name on board two big budget bombs with not only Alita, but Terminator: Dark Fate due later this year too (which is probably my nailed on bet for tanksville this year).
Tracking numbers ahead is tough. Had Cameron made his initial 2018 target for Avatar 2, could it have drowned Aquaman? Maybe not. This year sees the end of one Marvel Phase, and an evolution to the next. That’s either a blessing or curse for Avatar 2. On one hand, what if the next phase doesn’t live up? What if this new phase of the MCU doesn’t gain the same popularity as the last? No, of course that won’t happen, it’s Marvel. Kevin Feige could eat flour and shit cupcakes. There will be a Christmas time gap that would have been Star Wars filled previously, so there’s another positive sign for Avatar 2 taking a big audience share. There’s a planned Disney release around the same time. Lets face it, Disney usually take a good wedge. Not long after Avatar 2, Sherlock Holmes 3 is due out, and whilst that shouldn’t cause too many worries, if there is a significant disinterest in Avatar, then falling behind Holmes and losing an expected #1 opening in the second week may prove damaging to the long haul run. Sing 2 also comes the week after and kids animated films can pick up good numbers in holiday season. There are still release dates to firm up in and around the season too. Whilst undoubtedly, Avatar 2 is probably going to rule the roost, as said before, is it going to do close to enough to meet expectations?
What if Avatar 2 does bomb? What happens to the remaining sequels? Disney has felt a burn from Star Wars oversaturation. Audiences quickly get tired of things. At the same time you can’t leave it too long. You’d be unlikely to see them sweep the films under the rug. Whatever happens, Cameron will need to release the films he’s shot (things keep changing but Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 are shooting simultaneously) but the real danger is, if the first sequel underwhelms, you cannot recover and regrow the franchise. It’ll just slowly fade until the last showing of the fifth film. It takes a level of self-assurance that few have to match Cameron, to put their faith into their idea. Likewise the studio is that sure of failure that they’ve looked entirely ahead to four films. That final film will likely hold fire if the second film underwhelms.
It remains to be see and it’ll be interesting to see. The inevitable and likely gargantuan marketing expense will see have an impact. Likewise, the current taste in East Asia for colourful western sci-fi films means, China in particular, should see massive returns. The same as for many under-performing Hollywood films in domestic markets, Avatar 2 may find its longevity is dictated by its gross in China (after all a massive Chinese haul is the only reason we’re seeing a sixth Terminator following T-Gen being saved in that territory). Avatar 2 is currently scheduled for December next year. There’s just as much potential for this to show record breaking losses, as there is to see Cameron usurp his place at the top of the box office tree again.
Will Avatar 2 succeed or fail? Let us know in the comments below or tweet us @FlickeringMyth…
Tom Jolliffe is an award winning screenwriter and passionate cinephile. He has three features due out on DVD/VOD in 2019 and a number of shorts hitting festivals. Find more info at the best personal site you’ll ever see here.
Originally published August 1, 2019. Updated November 29, 2022.
