The 2026 box office is on fire and up on 2025’s takings from this time last year. So what have the successes (and failures) told us?
A few years ago, there seemed like a very real possibility that cinema and the big screen experience were irreparably damaged. There’s no two ways about it, the industry as a whole is still suffering, but when it comes to movies in the age of streaming and changing tastes in audience viewing, the idea that theatrical distribution could crumble felt hyperbolic, yet not without basis.
Shoots of recovery following the COVID-led crash of 2020 saw significant recovery in 2025, thanks to a well-timed Avatar release as well as the jaw-dropping success of China’s jewel in the crown, Ne Zha 2, which grossed $2.2 billion dollars worldwide (and the vast majority from China’s domestic box office). Of course, a huge success in the East may not contribute hugely to the West, but regardless of Ne Zha 2, the US box office in 2025 was cause for celebration. As we head into a weekend of Spider-Man returning to the big screen and already tracking to comfortably clear a billion bucks, there are further reasons for optimism. 2025, which still has a number of potential financial behemoths to come, is currently around 10% higher than 2025 was at the same point last year. By the year’s end, it’s likely to be comfortably ahead of 2025’s takings too.
The big hitters and surprise successes of the year suggest a number of reasons why we’re seeing another boost. Recent years have been a mixed bag for sequels, reboots and established IPs. Many of these are still underperforming theatrically, such as Masters of the Universe and Supergirl. In the case of Masters, being a big tentpole Amazon original also meant the model for success was slightly different, with its box office coffers there to augment its stronger presence on the streaming release. Many dismissed it as a flop, but as I pointed out here, it’s not that black and white with some films, and just as many outlets who slammed Masters for being a flop (as I predicted) are now pumping out redemption pieces as it dropped straight to the top of the charts on Prime with huge viewing numbers. Supergirl, of course, has a streaming destination too.
However, if we do look at the theatrical numbers in isolation, then what we learn from Masters and Supergirl doing less than majestic numbers is this: IP works if it’s A-list or the anticipation has been built. Supergirl has never worked. We’ve had a flop movie already and shows that came and went without a huge deal of hype. Let’s face it, though, if Superman scraped even on his most recent box office run (before cementing success with a killer streaming run, of course), Supergirl was always going to struggle by comparison. Superman is a top-tier comic book character; his cousin is not. As for Masters, if Dolph Lundgren’s movie in 1987 came a couple of years too late to ride the crest of the He-Man wave, then certainly by 2026 it was way too far gone. Still, the elements within the colourful new adaptation weren’t enough to pull youngsters into cinemas, but they can lure Prime subscribers to click its thumbnail.
If you want big-screen assurance at the big-budget level, you need assurance and time to build some anticipation. Coming seven years after the fourth movie, Toy Story 5 was guaranteed coin, grossing over a billion (and counting) on its theatrical run. It is, after all, the property with which Pixar built its success and its most iconic property. Meanwhile, following the success of the first big-screen animated adventure for Super Mario, the new film, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, has also crossed the billion mark. The Devil Wears Prada 2, which, though hardly low-budget, was cheap to produce in comparison to a typical comic book film. It had 20 years of anticipation, cult fandom, and a nice window without huge competition to rake in almost $700 million.
Music biopics have proved popular in recent history too, under the right circumstances, whether it’s Taylor Swift’s smash-hit concert film or Bohemian Rhapsody. Again, you need the big names that have worldwide appeal. Whilst the film may have been well received critically, A Better Man was too wild a swing, casting a pop star barely known beyond British shores (Robbie Williams) and turning him into a chimp. Of course, it made barely a grunt at the box office (though it did quite well in the UK). As far as musical icons, it doesn’t come much bigger than a glitzy, if rose-tinted, adaptation of Michael Jackson’s key breakout years as a solo artist. Critics battered Michael, but fans went hee-hee-head over heels for it. It grossed over a billion worldwide.
We’ve also seen that there’s still a place for a star-driven project that captures the right moment, with Project Hail Mary rocket-powered by Ryan Gosling’s charisma and great word of mouth, gaining an impressive haul of close to $700 million. It was an adaptation, but you wouldn’t call it a pop-culturally big IP at all. With recognisable and evergreen space odyssey/save the universe tropes, it also had elements in place that audiences have previously responded to in big numbers.
We also have The Odyssey riding high and sailing across calm seas (because whilst Odysseus angered Poseidon, Chris Nolan seems to be in his good books) toward a billion-plus haul (even with Peter Parker about to run his ship off course slightly). The biggest key to the success of The Odyssey is the fact that most big cinema hits are built on spectacle. Audiences love well-delivered spectacle, awe, and wonder. As such, one of the best technicians of his era, Christopher Nolan, has now become essential viewing for not just cinephiles, but casual fans. So much so that he can take genres and projects that wouldn’t even scream box office dynamite and conjure an explosive impact. One of the key reasons is that Nolan knows how to do awe-inducing spectacle, and perhaps too, his practical-heavy filmmaking, built on old-school techniques, has become almost a novelty. It also inspires amazement in young viewers who’ve grown up with the artifice of CGI-heavy movies.
You might look at the recent struggles for the MCU and DCEU and summarize that maybe those CGI fests aren’t as appealing as they once were. In some cases, there’s some truth to that, and we may well see an increase in practical filmmaking again but it goes deeper and Marvel may just have learned two important lessons of late. One is that oversaturation leads audiences to boredom and apathy. The second lesson is that the appeal of B- and C-tier characters just isn’t there like it may have been 10-15 years ago, when the mere Marvel logo could smash the billion mark, regardless of the poster hero.
Spidey is one of the most instantly recognisable and popular heroes across pop culture and probably Marvel’s star attraction. There was almost a danger that he might have suffered through overexposure and too many reboots; however, in the post Avengers: Endgame era, we’ve had innumerable Marvel films. Just three have crossed the billion-dollar mark, two of which were Spider-Man films (Deadpool and Wolverine the other). The likelihood is that Spider-Man: Brand New Day is going to comfortably cross that, and perhaps even get near the previous instalment, No Way Home (which finished a pinch under two billion). It’s been five years of waiting, enough time not to be bored by the sight of him.
By that same token, the year ends with the next big Marvel cluster, Avengers: Doomsday, which has had seven years of build-up, albeit some of the groundwork was laid in films that did less than stellar box office. Still, it’s going to make bank. Then, to further add to a mega end of the year, Dune: Part Three also drops. Can the big Avengers ensemble build the same kind of hype as the previous ones? Will it top Spider-Man? Will it sweep Dune aside? Whilst a victory for Dune would be a victory for (more) practical filmmaking, the real winner will be the cinemas who’ll have two sure-fire screen fillers on Dunesday.
Denis Villeneuve has also, like Nolan, proved that visionary filmmaking can bring audiences, even to very niche projects. Big epics often struggle, but not so The Odyssey, whilst Dune has always been a very acquired taste once deemed impossible to suitably adapt. Denis managed it with aplomb, the previous instalment harvesting over 700 million bucks at the box office. If there’s also a lesson to be learned from Denis, it’s making a spectacle-heavy film that doesn’t talk down to its audience, isn’t infested with studio executive whims, and is brilliantly made. Make a good film. Who’d have thought?
Beyond the big blockbusters, we’ve also been taught a very important lesson with indie films (once again, inherently cyclical lessons). Obsession and Backrooms tapped into a demographic slightly cast asunder. Gen Z have of late been misrepresented, pandered to (but not satisfied), and misjudged by execs with little genuine understanding of what audiences look for. Both films were backed by social media heft (so too, Iron Lung and, less successfully, Shelby Oaks). They were made on low budgets, with money pumped adeptly into marketing, which the respective creators had a major say in, to add to the subscribers loyal to creators like Curry Barker and Kane Parsons. It’s been tried before more cynically and by creators who weren’t naturally skilled filmmakers, but this year, the YouTubers knocked it out of the park. The films also lent themselves to meme culture and zeitgeist capture.
Furthermore, Obsessions and Backroom were so good that word of mouth gave them box office stamina. Again, make a good film with a pinch of thought and subtext, and audiences (particularly young) will respond. Obsession grossed almost half a billion dollars worldwide, a frankly crazy number for the genre, never mind a film of that budget level. Backrooms grossed almost $400 million. Yes, dear readers, if you give the under-30s something interesting to watch, which also speaks to them, represented by filmmakers of their generation, they will back it.
Is 2026 going to be a high peak before a regression, or are we seeing real growth that will keep improving? The big question is whether studios will learn from these results or whether they’ll try to repeat the formula and start cranking out greater numbers to the point of ad nauseum once again. Do you think cinema is almost back to full power? Will the box office takings continue rising? Let us know on our social channels @FlickeringMyth…
Tom Jolliffe
