This Sunday all of the stars will be out to celebrate the greatest achievements in cinema over 2015. Is it Leo’s year? Will there be any upsets? If John Travolta is asked to speak, will he successfully be able to pronounce everything right? What will win the most prestigious prize of Best Picture? And most importantly, will there be any wardrobe malfunctions from all of those revealing dresses? Okay, maybe that last one isn’t so important, but you never know!
As someone who has watched 156 movies over the course of last year, and has been following Academy Awards voting patterns for quite some time now, I feel pretty confident in giving you some spoilers as to who will be taking home golden statues. So enough with the preamble and let’s get right into it!
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Reasoning: Not only do I have it selected to win other big awards, but the other two major contenders are both journalistic dramas of some form, and will most likely split the vote while most everyone else goes for The Revenant. It also has been winning a fair amount of precursor awards.
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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Reasoning: Whether you want to debate if Leonardo DiCaprio just did the “most acting” or not doesn’t really negate the fact that this category is actually rather weak this year. The female side of things is much more interesting. There is absolutely no chance Leo loses, but whether he passes out from sheer joy delivering his acceptance speech is another story.
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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Reasoning: This is another surefire lock based on the amount of precursor award wins alone, but outside of Brooklyn none of the other films have fared very well in nominations. Carol in particular was overlooked. It’s always possible Saoirse Ronan gets the upset victory but it is unlikely at this point.
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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Reasoning: Sylvester Stallone didn’t just give an amazing performance, but he’s also winning many of the precursor awards and has a huge nostalgia factor. Also, who doesn’t want to see Rocky win one last time?
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Reasoning: Of the four acting categories this is definitely the toughest to predict and could swing multiple ways. Alicia Vikander, Kate Winslet, and Rooney Mara have all won some precursor awards. They have all delivered amazing performances. However, Vikander will most likely win because her body of work throughout the year was also much stronger than the other contenders. She honestly should be nominated for Ex Machina, you know,, the movie everyone actually likes vs the movie no one likes outside the performances.
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ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Reasoning: No surprise here, the Academy always votes for a Pixar movie if it gets extremely high praise. Many of the voters have also admitted they don’t even bother with some of the lesser-known or foreign features. Anomalisa deserves it more, but I’m betting many of the voters just don’t understand what makes the stop-motion R-rated film so special.
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CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Mad Max: Fury Road
Reasoning: It is Emmanuel Lubezki,, the Academy clearly loves him and his work here is good enough to win three in a row.
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COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Reasoning: I feel like the Academy will want to reward Carol somehow, and this just seems like the safest bet. Really, any of these could win for different reasons, but I would simply be surprised if Carol went home empty-handed even though the Academy isn’t as over the moon for it as other committees,
DIRECTING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Reasoning: Two months ago I would have been predicting Spotlight for all of these major categories, but there is is no denying that The Revenant has gained serious steam. For this category specifically, the Academy will be drawn to how incredibly difficult and challenging the whole production was, and how the end result was a marvelous piece of work. This movie is pretty much the definition of suffering for art.
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DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Reasoning: Amy has been the front-runner for quite some time now; this is probably one of the biggest locks of the night.
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DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Body Team 12
Chau, beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Reasoning: I’m just throwing darts here and am going with popular opinion because I don’t really follow short films.
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FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Reasoning: Mad Max is sure to rack up many of the technical awards, but this is one it could actually lose if The Big Short pulls off an upset. Both films are definitely the highlight of achievement in editing for 2015, but one would have to think Mad Max is the favorite due to how it captures absolute madness so crisp and clear, even with constant cuts.
Click below for the remaining predictions…
Originally published February 25, 2016. Updated April 15, 2018.
