This week Neil Calloway looks at a movie based way of predicting election outcomes…
If you hadn’t noticed, there was a General Election in the UK this week. The result was probably best summed up by the American gentleman I overhead outside the Houses of Parliament on Friday, who said “The Prime Minister who was the Prime Minister is still the Prime Minister.” There were lots of losers on the night – the Lib Dems went from having 57 seats and being part of the government to having 8 seats and their leader resigning. The Labour Party lost 24 seats, including that of the Shadow Chancellor and accidental meme creator Ed Balls. As well as Nick Clegg standing down, Labour leader Ed Miliband and UKIP chief Nigel Farage all quit their positions the day after the election. However, the biggest losers of the night were the pollsters.
For the entire election campaign all polls said that there would be very little between the Conservatives and Labour, with another coalition the most likely outcome, and various pundits predicting either Labour doing a deal with the Scottish National Party, or the Conservatives once again being helped to form a majority by the Liberal Democrats, or the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party. As election day got closer, it was looking more odds on that Labour leader Ed Miliband would be walking into 10 Downing Street. Even the exit polls, released after the voting had ended, suggested the Conservatives would not get a majority on their own. In the end they secured more than half the 650 seats in the House of Commons, with 330 of their candidates being elected (John Bercow, the Speaker, does not vote in Parliament and isn’t included in the final total, despite originally being elected as a Conservative).
It turns out however, that there was one surefire way of predicting the outcome, with easily available information; all you have to know is the favourite films of the party leaders.
David Cameron has spoken often about his love for Lawrence of Arabia; David Lean’s epic 1962 biopic set during the First World War. He even tweeted his condolences when its star, Peter O’Toole died in 2013. Ed Miliband has, at different times, mentioned two different films as his favourite; 12 Angry Men and The Usual Suspects. One is the story of justice being done against the odds and the other is a tale about a man who is mocked by others but turns out to be more powerful than anyone imagined. You can see why Ed Miliband chose them both. Nick Clegg’s favourite film is apparently The Class, a French film from 2008 about a teacher in Paris, which is a very Liberal Democrat choice of film; you can just imagine their members enjoying it as they sit relaxing in their socks and sandals and stroke their beards.
Ranking the films in terms of US domestic box office, Lawrence of Arabia comes out on top, earning $45 million dollars. Sadly the box office figures for 12 Angry Men don’t seem to be available, but The Usual Suspects made $23 million in US cinemas. The Class, by comparison, only took $3 million dollars at the box office in the States.
Despite what studio executives might tell you, box office isn’t king; let’s look at how many Oscars each film was nominated for and won. Lawrence of Arabia was nominated for ten Academy Awards, and won seven of them. 12 Angry Men was nominated for three Oscars, but failed to win any of them. The Usual Suspects won both the awards it was nominated for; Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor. The Class failed to convert its nomination for best Foreign Language Film into the coveted gold statuette. So far, Cameron’s favourite film has come first in both categories, Ed Miliband’s has come second and Nick Clegg’s third. That’s a pretty accurate reflection of the results for their parties.
Still not convinced? Fair enough; you can convince the public to see your film even if it is bad, and you can convince your fellow industry professionals to shower it with awards. Can you also convince film critics that your movie is worth seeing?
According to review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, Lawrence of Arabia has a 99% “fresh” rating. 12 Angry Men just pips it though, getting 100%. However, The Usual Suspects only got a rating of 88%, making Ed Miliband’s average movie rating 94%. Once again, with the fresh rating of The Class at 91%, Nick Clegg comes in third.
Now, the system isn’t infallible; I haven’t taken into consideration the SNP, who are now the third largest party in parliament, but of the three biggest parties going into the election, the leader of the Conservatives has the film with the biggest box office, the most Oscars, and the most critical acclaim as his favourite, the Labour Party leader’s films come in second, and the Lib Dem leader is in third.
It’s not just British elections this works with; the 2000 US Presidential Election is probably the most controversial in living memory, coming down to hanging chads, recounts in Florida and a Supreme Court ruling. None of this would have happened had the two candidates, George W Bush and Al Gore, had just revealed their favourite films. Bush, a man who once co-owned a baseball team, says the folksy baseball film Field of Dreams is his favourite movie. Gore, who once claimed to have invented the internet, prefers 1980s sci-fi film Tron. Field of Dreams earned $64 million at the US box office, almost double Tron‘s $33 million, got two Oscar nominations against Tron‘s zero, and has a 87% “fresh” rating compared to Tron‘s 70% rating. A lot of legal fees and arguments would have been dispensed with had the Presidency been awarded on this basis.
I’m not saying the system is perfect, but if in the next few months Hillary Clinton says her favourite film is Titanic or Avatar, then put money on her being the next US President.
Neil Calloway is a pub quiz extraordinaire and Top Gun obsessive. Check back here every Sunday for future installments.
https://youtu.be/8HTiU_hrLms?list=PL18yMRIfoszFLSgML6ddazw180SXMvMz5
Originally published May 10, 2015. Updated April 14, 2018.
