BEST ACTOR
Dead Certs
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Probable Contenders
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Possible Spoilers
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)
This is a very weird race indeed and one that could swing in a number of directions. I have gone with my heart by including Hawke for his outstanding turn in First Reformed, but the Academy could easily go for Mortensen or even give Redford’s acting swansong a legacy nod. Picking a winner, though, is an easier task. Christian Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney in Vice has the transformative physical qualities beloved by the Academy, and it’s also very good, despite the very shaky movie surrounding it. It’s a pretty unstoppable combo.
PREDICTED WINNER – Christian Bale (Vice)
BEST ACTRESS
Dead Certs
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Probable Contenders
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me>)
Possible Spoilers
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
This is an exceptionally strong field, with at least a dozen nominees properly in the mix. The top three are set and it would be a surprise not to see McCarthy there, but that final slot is thoroughly up for grabs. It would seem odd for Blunt to make it in if Mary Poppins Returns isn’t there for Best Picture, but Yalitza Aparicio could definitely benefit from a surge for Roma and the weight of good feeling behind Collette’s performance in Hereditary could cater well towards more genre-minded voters. When it comes to a winner, it could be any of those top three, but the narrative is currently firmly in favour of Close. Even the weirdest Golden Globes ceremony in years gave her the prize, which suggests she’s in for an easy ride to glory as the season progresses.
PREDICTED WINNER – Glenn Close (The Wife)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Dead Certs
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Probable Contenders
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Possible Spoilers
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
This one could go in a number of ways. Mahershala Ali won the Golden Globe in this category and, if the Academy has affection for Green Book, then he could emerge victorious. Sam Elliott is also a serious contender if A Star is Born has a good night. My pick, though, is Richard E Grant for his Withnail-esque sozzled turn in Can You Ever Forgive Me? – a win that seems even more likely as a result of how much fun Grant looks to be having on the campaign trail so far.
PREDICTED WINNER – Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Dead Certs
Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Probable Contenders
Claire Foy (First Man)
Possible Spoilers
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
Amy Adams looks set to be a bridesmaid yet again in this category. She’s more or less guaranteed a spot, though, along with the two supporting turns from The Favourite. The final spot is the only real point of intrigue, with precursor awards splitting themselves between a number of different performers. It seems likely, though, that Regina King’s excellent work in If Beale Street Could Talk will come through, in what may well be that film’s only prize – a grave injustice for one of the most overlooked movies of this season.
PREDICTED WINNER – Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
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